Apra-IL Webinar: Everything You’ve Ever Needed to Know About Proposal Forecasting

Apra-IL Webinar: Everything You’ve Ever Needed to Know About Proposal Forecasting

Like clockwork, just about every fundraising organization large or small must answer some version of the “What’s in our pipeline?” or “How much are we going to raise?” question during the year. But while the use of predictive prospect scoring models has become industry commonplace in recent years, similar efforts for proposal pipeline forecasting have seemingly lagged in adoption. Even many otherwise robust and forward-thinking organizations still rely on gut feel and “back-of-the-napkin math” to set their yearly dollars raised target and evaluate their gift officers’ proposal activity. In an industry where most teams live or die by meeting their fundraising goal for the year, how can organizations harness their data to create more accurate pipeline forecasts?

This presentation will detail one fundraising professional’s work to develop a machine learning system for predicting which proposals are likely to close, and how much an organization can expect to raise for the year based on its existing pipeline. It will introduce attendees to the data science process, explain the fundamentals of two common machine learning approaches in classification modeling and decision trees, and propose two new gift pipeline metrics: Proposal Probability, and Estimated Time-to-Close. Along the way, it will present several statistical findings on proposal outcomes that even non-technical shops and professionals can use to inform their own forecasting systems, pipeline metrics, and portfolio review programs.

If you’ve ever found yourself wondering “How much can we expect to get from our current pipeline?”, “Why did those two major gift proposals have totally different outcomes?”, and “Which proposals are actually going to close this year?”, this presentation is for you.

Speaker Bio: 

Andrew Gutierrez is a fundraising professional and data scientist who has worked primarily in the healthcare philanthropy space since 2018, having held roles such as Data Scientist and Systems Analyst at Cleveland Clinic’s Philanthropy Institute, and Associate Director of Development Operations at Northwestern University’s Feinberg School of Medicine. Originally beginning his philanthropy career as a grant writer before transitioning to analytics, his work now primarily focuses on using predictive modeling to identify and segment prospects, quantify donors’ capacity and affinity, and project gift revenue outcomes.

Andrew has been the Vice President of Apra’s Illinois chapter since 2025, and he is also a member of the Association for Advancement Services Professionals’ (aasp) Education Committee. He has presented at industry events such as the Midwest “Meeting of the Minds” Annual Giving and Advancement Services Conference, the aasp’s Summer Deep Dive Webinar Series, and the Texas Advancement Analytics Symposium, and his writing has appeared in publications such as Apra Connections and the University of Texas Press’s Journal of Advancement Analytics.

Andrew graduated from Ohio State University with an undergraduate degree in Arts Administration & Policy. Outside of the philanthropy world, you can likely find him at his “5 to 9” gig as an indoor cycling instructor for Chicago’s Fitness Formula Clubs.